D-S理论在多传感器短临震预报中的应用

在D-S理论的基础上,结合模糊数学理论,依据地震前兆,给出了短临震预报的信息融合算法。首先,对在现场工作的地电、地应力、地下水位、短水准、水氡等传感器的数值进行特征提取,把模糊数学中隶属度函数的概念运用到D-S理论中,得出每种前兆出现时地震发生的信度函数分配,然后,采用多传感器分布式融合算法进行信息融合,利用判决规则来预报地震。通过对1976年唐山7.8级地震预报的仿真,结果表明:D-S理论在地震预报中具有一定的有效性和优越性。

Application of D-S theory in short-term and impending earthquake prediction of multi-sensor

An information fusion algorithm for short-term and impending earthquake prediction by seismic precursor is presented.The algorithm is based on D-S theory and fuzzy mathematics.Firstly,the characteristic values of Geoelectricity,ground stress,groundwater level,short levelling and groundwater radon sensors in the locale are extracted.Then,the concept of membership function in fuzzy mathematics is generalized to D-S theory to produce basic probability assignment(BPA) of earthquake when each precursor occurs.The BPAs fuse according as D-S rule,and through the judge rule of target mode,the situation of earthquake is predicted at last.Through the prediction simulation to 7.8 earthquake of Tangshan in 1976,it is shown that the D-S theory is more efficient and superiority in earthquake prediction.