| 最近邻抽样回归模型及其在枯水期月径流预报中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘晔,汤成友. 最近邻抽样回归模型及其在枯水期月径流预报中的应用[J]. 河北水利水电技术, 2011, 0(6): 14-17 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘晔 汤成友 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]重庆交通大学河海学院,重庆400074 [2]长江水利委员会水文局长江上游水文水资源勘测局,重庆400014 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为合理调配水资源,做好枯季径流预报,可采用最近邻抽样回归模型进行预测。按照最近邻抽样回归模型的基本思路和实现算法,根据长江上游主要控制站——寸滩站1893年1月—2009年12月历史同期月整编资料,对该流域的枯季径流特性进行分析研究,通过建立模型,对模型预测效果进行验证。结果表明：该模型对枯季径流的预报精度较高,可用于作业预报。
|
| 关 键 词： | 最近邻抽样回归模型 枯水期 月径流 预报 |
Application of Nearest Neighbor Bootstrapping Regressive Model in the Dry Season Monthly Runoff Forecast |
| |
| LIU Ye,TANG Cheng-you. Application of Nearest Neighbor Bootstrapping Regressive Model in the Dry Season Monthly Runoff Forecast[J]. Hebei Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2011, 0(6): 14-17 |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Ye TANG Cheng-you |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1.School of River ＆ Ocean Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China; 2.The Upper Yangtze River Survey Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Chongqing 400014,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | For the rational allocation of water resources and good forecasting of dry season runoff,using the Nearest Neighbor Bootstrapping Regressive Model（NNBR model） to predict.Firstly,it describes the basic ideas and algorithm of the（NNBR model）,making an analysis of Low Flow Characteristics,according to the information on reorganization of Yangtze River main controller——Cuntan Station in the same period of history of 1893—2009 year.Then by establishing the model,testing the effect of forecast model.The results show that the dry season runoff simulation is better,and the NNBR model can be used for operating forecast. |
| |
| Keywords: | Nearest Neighbor Bootstrapping Regressive Model dry season monthly runoff forecast |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
