500 kV输电线路故障时空特性分析

随着电力系统通信自动化技术的发展，各种信息采集系统得到广泛应用，这为分析电网故障的时空特性提供了有利条件。以H省电网500 kV输电网为例，探讨了5年间500 kV输电线路故障在较长时间段上的行为特性。首先在输电线路故障时间序列层面上，统计分析输电线路故障发生的时间（单位：天）与同一时间点故障累计频次和累计概率之间的相互关系，采用Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）法检验其分布的正态性，并根据R/S时序分析法计算出H省电网500 kV输电网5年间输电线路故障基于时序的Hurst指数，从而判断其在时间序列上具有长程相关性。然后，在空间层面上，统计分析5年期间H省电网每条500 kV输电线路故障次数与其发生频次和累计概率的关系，得出输电线路故障在空间上符合幂律分布特征。研究电网故障的时空分布特性为电网的风险管理和风险预测提供了辅助决策的依据。

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of 500 kV Transmission Line Fault

With the development of power system communication automation, various kinds of information collection systems have been widely used, which is beneficial to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristics of power grid faults. Taking 500 kV transmission network in H province as example, this paper researched the long-time behavior characteristics of 500 kV transmission line faults in recent 5 years. Firstly, on the time series level of transmission line fault, statistical analysis was carried out on the interrelation between fault timing (unit: day) and fault cumulative frequency and probability under same time point. Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) method was adopted to testify the normality of the distribution, and Hurst exponent based on time series of 500 kV transmission network in H province during 5 years was calculated according to R/S time series analysis. Thereby the long-term correlation under time series was estimated. Then, on the level of space, statistical analysis was carried out on the interrelation between fault times of each 500 kV transmission line in H province during 5 years and its fault cumulative frequency and probability, and it was proved that transmission line faults coincided with power-law distribution characteristic. The research on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics can provide the basis of assistant decision for the risk management and prediction of power system.