快速发展期城市地铁站客流预测与疏散能力评估

基于灰色系统理论建立灰色预测GM（1，1）模型，对城市快速发展和人口规模大幅增长的城市中（以杭州市为例）既有地铁车站客流量进行了预测。结果表明，在人口规模快速增长的城市中，地铁车站高峰小时最大断面客流量将提前14 年达到设计阶段远期高峰小时客流预测量，车站投入运营10 年后将超过设计阶段远期高峰小时客流预测量的18.58%。对不同客流强度下车站疏散能力进行模拟仿真，结果表明：当车站客流量达到设计最大客流量的10.88%时，所有人员疏散至安全区的用时将超过6 min，车站疏散能力不再满足现行规范要求。

Traffic volume forecast and evacuation capacity assessment of subway station in the city rapid developing

A grey prediction GM( 1,1) model is established based on grey system theory, and the traffic volume of a existing subway station in a city which has a fast development and high growth rate of population is predicted. The result shows that, the maximum cross- section traffic volume during peak hours of subway station in the city which has a rapid growth of urban population will reach its long- term design stage forecast peak hour traffic volume ahead of schedule about 14 years, and will exceed 18.58% of its long- term design stage forecast peak hours traffic volume 10 years after it was put into service. Then the evacuation capacity of subway station under different traffic volume intensity is simulated, the result indicates that when the subway traffic volume is bigger than 10.88% of its maximum design traffic volume, the time for all personnel to evacuate to safety zone will exceed 6 minutes, which means the evacuation capacity of the station will no longer meet the requirements of the current specifications.