基于信息驱动理论的危险化学品火灾动态情景构建

针对危险化学品火灾事故处置灾情信息收集过程中出现的决策误差风险，基于信息驱动理论，论述了危险化学品火灾事故以现场信息完善更新过程为主导，基于现场灾情动态变化更替的过程，建立事故现场信息、现场灾情、应急救援行动三者之间的螺旋循环结构模型，分析了信息在危险化学品火灾事故情景演变中的事故爆发灾情初判、初期处置方案介入、处置成效首次反馈和应急救援行动调整4 个阶段的驱动过程，最后以某液化石油气储罐爆炸事故为实例对模型进行验证。

Dynamic scenario construction of hazardous chemicals fire based on information driven theory

Aiming at the risk of decision-making errors in the process of collecting information on hazardous chemical fire accidents, based on the information- driven theory, this paper believes that the fire accident of hazardous chemicals is led by the process of on-site information improvement and update, and the process of dynamic changes in the on- site disaster situation is established to build a spiral cycle formed by accident site information, on- site disaster situation, and emergency rescue operations. The structural model analyzes the four- stage driving process of the information in the evolution of hazardous chemical fire accident scenarios: the initial judgment of the accident outbreak, the intervention of the initial treatment plan, the first feedback of the treatment effect, and the adjustment of emergency rescue operations. Finally, an explosion accident of a petroleum gas storage tank is used as an example to verify the model.