基于实物期权的海外矿业投资柔性决策模型

研究了海外矿业投资项目动态净现值及其柔性价值的确定，建立了基于盖斯克模型的改变运营规模的复合期权价值计算模型，并以我国某钢铁企业集团收购南非A公司铬矿及铬铁项目为例进行了计算与分析。结果表明：所建立的模型为海外矿业投资决策提供了一种较好的思路与方法。

Study on the Overseas Mining Investment Decision Based on Real Option and Flexibility Theory

Abstract: Overseas mining investment decision is very important to mining development. Once do a wrong decision, then it may have a severe influence on our mining enterprise, and even lead the financing chain break. First, the article studied the calculations of the dynamic present value and its flexible value on overseas mining investment project; second, built up a compound option model based on Geske model, supposing the production scale can be changed twice; finally interpreted the model with a case of South African chrome mining project merged by a steel enterprise of our country. The results indicate that the models have better theoretic and application values.