资源型城市选择接续产业的PCDL模型研究——以东营为例

针对资源型城市普遍存在的“二元经济”和“飞地经济”特征,构筑以工业化阶段分析、产业竞争力分析、产业发展动力分析、区位分析组成的PCDL模型来解决其接续产业的选择问题,并以东营为例,检验模型的有效性。工业化阶段分析采用4项指标综合评判;产业竞争力分析采集12项经济指标,并以因子分析法进行数据处理;产业发展动力分析考察产业增长趋势和结构调整效益2个方面,并在结构调整效益分析中应用SS模型进行数据处理;区位分析着重考察区位商和制造业结构2个方面。在实证基础上,本文认为资源型城市应结合自身实际条件,选择重点的初级制造业为接续产业,避免逐新攀比或盲目照搬其他城市经验的陷阱。

AN INTRODUCTION OF PCDL MODEL FOR RESOURCES INTENSIVE CITY TO CHOOSE SUPERSEDED INDUSTRIES: A CASE STUDY OF DONGYING

The resources intensive cities are char-acterized by “dual-economy” and “enclave economy”.This paper introduces the PCDL model,which is combined by industrialization phase,competitiveness of industries,development impetus of industries and analysis of location,to research the choice of super-seded industries of cities.Then with Dongying as a case,it validates the effectiveness of the model.It also argues that resources intensive cities should con-sider local conditions and choose primary manufac-tures as superseded industries.