黄河三角洲地区降水时序变化特征研究

基于黄河三角洲内5个气象站1961—2007年逐日降水资料,采用Mann Kendal非参数检验、小波分析等方法,对近50年来黄河三角洲地区降水量时序变化特征进行研究。结果表明,黄河三角洲地区近50年来,年际和年内不同季节降水量均呈逐步下降趋势,并在1976年左右发生突变,之后降水量下降显著。年际降水存在约8~9年的主变化周期,而春夏秋冬四季降水存在约16~17年的主变化周期。根据周期变化特征,预测2012—2014年黄河三角洲地区将处于多水期,其中秋季和冬季降水较多,而春季和夏季降水较少。

Characteristics of variation of precipitation time series in Yellow River Delta

Based on daily precipitation data measured at five meteorological stations in the Yellow River Delta from 1961 to 2007, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and wavelet analysis methods were used to analyze the characteristics of variation of the precipitation time series in the Yellow River Delta over the last 50 years. The results show that the inter- annual and seasonal precipitation in the area had a decreasing trend during the study period and changed abruptly around 1976, when the precipitation began to decrease significantly. The inter-annual precipitation had an eight to nine-year dominant cycle and the four seasonal precipitations had 16 to 17-year dominant cycles. According to the cycle characteristics, it can be predicted that there will be a period of abundant precipitation from 2012 to 2014 in the Yellow River Delta, and there will be more precipitation in autumn and winter and less precipitation in spring and summer.