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| 城市可持续发展的趋势预测及预警方法研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 荆平,贾海峰,许碧霞.城市可持续发展的趋势预测及预警方法研究[J].土木与环境工程学报,2008,30(2):116-120. |
| 作者姓名： | 荆平 贾海峰 许碧霞 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学,环境科学与工程系,北京,100084;天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津,300387 2. 清华大学,环境科学与工程系,北京,100084 3. 天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津,300387 |
| 基金项目： | 天津市社会科学基金，天津师范大学校科研和教改项目 |
| 摘 要： | 可持续发展的指标体系和评价方法已出现了大量的研究成果,而发展趋势预测和预警分析则相对薄弱。灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,在小样本的数据预测中,具有独特的优势,可以作为可持续发展指标变化趋势的预测模型。模糊物元预警方法,可在已有现状统计数据和灰色预测数据的基础上,依据预警指标权重、预警标准,对区域可持续发展状况进行预警分析。实例以天津为例,根据选择的15个评价指标,运用层次分析法进行权重计算,结合国内外城市发展状况建立预警标准,采用模糊物元预警方法对该市的可持续发展进行预警分析。 |
| 关 键 词： | 可持续发展 预测 预警 城市 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7329(2008)02-0116-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年11月2日 |
Trend Forecasting and Forewarning Method for Urban Sustainable Development |
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| JING Ping,JIA Hai-feng,XU Bi-xia.Trend Forecasting and Forewarning Method for Urban Sustainable Development[J].Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering,2008,30(2):116-120. | |
| Authors: | JING Ping JIA Hai-feng XU Bi-xia |
| Affiliation: | Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China; College of Urban and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China;Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China;Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084, China |
| Abstract: | The index system and assessment methods for urban sustainable development are very popularly used,but the development trend prediction and forewarning analysis are rarely done.The GM(1,1) model is a specific one in the process of forecasting with little data,which can be used for the trend forecasting of sustainable development indexes.The fuzzy-element forewarning method can be used to analyze the regional sustainable development on the basis of statistical data and forecasting data with index weights and forewarning standards.In the case study,Tianjin city is selected as the object,the weights of 15 indexes are calculated by AHP method,the forewarning standard is determined according to the urban development level all over the world,the analysis works of sustainable development has been finished by fuzzy-element forewarning method |
| Keywords: | sustainable development forecasting forewarning city research |
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