基于灰色理论的中长期负荷预测

对负荷预测中的灰色预测方法进行了深入的研究,找出了灰色建模的局限性并提出了改进方法.通过对负荷原始数据序列的预处理及优化,增强了灰色预测对波动负荷数据序列的处理能力,利用等维新息递推GM(1,1)模型进行预测,保证了预测能够较为充分地利用新信息.经过改进之后的模型,扩展了普通GM(1,1)模型的适应范围,提高了预测精度.利用实例将改进模型与普通GM(1,1)模型进行比较,证明改进模型具有比普通GM(1,1)模型误差小、精度高的优点.

Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Based on Grey Theory

The limitation and solutions of gray modeling are proposed after a further research on gray method for load forecasting.The fluctuant data processing ability of gray forecasting method is improved by pretreatment and optimization to original loading data New information is fully used in forecasting by equally dimensional new information GM(l,l) model.The applicable range of the common GM(l,l) model is extended and the forecasting precision is improved after model improvement.The improved model shows the advantages of smaller error and higher precision compared with common GM(l,l) model by calculation example.