预测油气田可采储量和剩余可采储量的快速方法(为庆祝克拉玛依油田勘探开发50周年而作)

可采储量和剩余可采储量是油气田开发的重要指标,尤其剩余可采储量,是油气田未来开发的物质基础.目前,对于水驱开发的油田,预测可采储量的方法有：水驱曲线法、产量递减法、预测模型法和数值模拟法.然而,当油气田业已进入递减阶段之后,产量递减法则是最为重要的预测方法.它也是国际上通用的标准方法.基于产量递减法,提出了预测油气田技术可采储量、经济可采储量、剩余技术可采储量和剩余经济可采储量的快速方法.这些方法的实用性、有效性和可靠性,已被我国12个油田的实际应用所证实.

Method for Quickly Forecasting Recoverable Reserves and Remaining Recoverable Reserves in Oil and Gas Fields

The recoverable reserves and the remaining recoverable reserves are important indices for oil-gas development. The remaining recoverable reserves should be as a material base for it in future. For waterflooding oilfields, the methods for prediction of recoverable reserves include water drive curve, production decline, forecast model and numerical simulation. However, when a oil-gas field gets into late stage, the production decline becomes the most forecast method, which is also one of generally applied methods for forecasting recoverable reserves in the world. Based on this method, this paper presents the methods for quickly forecasting the technologically recoverable reserves, economically recoverable reserves, remaining technologically recoverable reserves and remaining economically recoverable reserves. The practicability, effectiveness and reliability of these methods have been confirmed by 12 oilfields in China.