协同综合预报IGDSS通用模型的研究与应用

分析了自然灾害综合预报会商式决策系统的特点,研究并提出了一种将智能决策方法作为“特殊预报专家”的协同综合预报IGDSS的通用模型。以地震然灾害综合预报为应用背景,根据地震综合预报的工作原理应用协同综合预报IGDSS通用模型,重点介绍了地震综合预报IGDSS的智能决策方法—贝叶斯网络的设计与实现,建立地震综合预报贝叶斯网络分析器,采用改进后的桶消元算法作为网络推理。给出了应用协同综合预报IGDSS通用模型解决地震综合预报的较完整的解决方案,系统已应用于福建省地震局预报中心。

Research and application of common model in the cooperation synthetical forecast IGDSS

The characters of negotiatory synthetical IGDSS for natural disaster forecasts was analyed.A general model in the forecast IGDSS which takes intelligent decision methods as special forecast experts was presented.The research chooses earthquake forecast as the application background.According to the principles of earthquake forecast and the general model in the negotiatory synthetical forecast IGDSS,the design and the implementation of the model using Bayesian networks as the intelligent decision method in the earthquake forecast IGDSS were mainly demonstrated.An analyzer for Bayesian networks whose inference module was based on improved bucket tree eliminating algorithm was developed.A complete method that using this general model to solve the problems in the earthquake forecast was de- scribed,and this system had been successfully applied in the earthquake administration of Fujian province.