| 改进灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 牛勇,王震宇,王红军,孙毅,李欣.改进灰色模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用[J].东北电力学院学报,2009,29(2):64-68. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 牛勇 王震宇 王红军 孙毅 李欣 |
| |
| 作者单位： | [1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林吉林132012 [2]烟台龙源电力技术股份有限公司,山东烟台264003 [3]齐齐哈尔电业局,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161005 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 针对中长期电力系统负荷预测,在前人已有成果的基础之上,对普通灰色模型进行了改进.一方面对历史数据进行二次平滑处理,大大消除了干扰因素;另一方面利用带有马尔可夫链符号估计的残差修正技术对未来残差的符号进行预测以修正灰色模型的预测结果.以某地区多年以来的历史数据为基础,建立了数学模型,通过实际数据计算表明:改进后的灰色负荷预测方法可以应用于电力系统中长期负荷预测,而且较普通灰色预测模型在预测精度上有着明显的提高,尤其是对于较远时间的负荷预测有着较为理想的预测精度,表明了该种方法的有效性和实用性.
|
| 关 键 词： | 灰色理论 改进灰色模型 马尔可夫链 中长期负荷预测 |
Application of Improved Grey model for Mid and Long-term Power Demand Forecasting |
| |
| NIU Yong,WANG Zhen-yu,WANG Hong-jun,SUN Yi,LI Xin.Application of Improved Grey model for Mid and Long-term Power Demand Forecasting[J].Journal of Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering,2009,29(2):64-68. |
| |
| Authors: | NIU Yong WANG Zhen-yu WANG Hong-jun SUN Yi LI Xin |
| |
| Affiliation: | NIU Yong,WANG Zhen-yu,WANG Hong-jun,SUN Yi,LI Xin (Electric Engineering College of Northeast Dianli University,Jilin,132012,Longyuan Electric Power Technology Co.,Ltd of Yantai City,Yantai,Sh,ong,264003,Qiqihaer Electric Power Bureau,Qiqihaer,Heilongjiang,161003) |
| |
| Abstract: | According to the medium and long-term power system load forecasting,improving solutions of the general Gray Model are proposed,based on the previous results in this paper.On one hand,historical data are processed with a second smoothing treatment greatly eliminating interference factors;on the other hand,the results of Gray prediction model prcdicting are amended depending on the use of Markov chain with a symbol of the residual estimation.In this paper,a mathematical model on load forecasting is set up bas... |
| |
| Keywords: | Grey Theory improved GM Model Markov-chain mid and long term load forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
