售电侧市场化改革分析与预测指标体系

针对当前的电力市场化改革,本文建立了一套评价售电侧市场化改革进展以及发展趋势的指标体系。首先基于当前售电侧市场化改革的目标和方向,分析改革后售电侧的新形态,提出从市场机制、市场开放程度、服务多样性、用户满意度等4个方面衡量售电市场改革进展的思路。同时,利用主成分分析法,分析各评价指标的权重,从而对不同地区售电侧市场化改革的进程进行综合评价,以回答某地区"改革处于哪个阶段"的问题。最后,基于所处阶段、在各指标项的得分,结合各指标权重,可以对某一地区"下一步如何改革"做出回答,指导该地区改革更有针对性地进行。

Reform of Retail Electricity Marketization and Its Comprehensive Assessment System

Considering the current reform of power sale market, this paper establishes a set of index system to evaluate the progress of market-oriented reform and development trend. Based on the goal and direction of the market-oriented reform of the power sales side, this paper analyzes the new forms of the electricity sales side after the reform. Then, this paper evaluates the progress of the reform in term of the market mechanism, the market opening degree, the service diversity and the customer satisfaction. At the same time, the principal component analysis method is applied to analyze the weight of each evaluation index, and the process of market-oriented reform of the electricity sales sides in different areas is evaluated synthetically to answer the key questions about “what stage of reform has been”. In the end, based on current stage and value of each index, such problem as “how to reform the next step” can be replied by combing the weighting of each index, which guides the reform direction of this area.