基于灰色马尔可夫链的武汉城市建设投资规模预测

为弥补灰色GM（1，1）模型不适合预测随机波动性较大的数据序列等缺点，辅以无后效性的马尔可夫链与之结合，建立灰色马尔可夫链预测模型。针对武汉市城市建设投资规模预测问题，通过建立灰色马尔可夫链模型对其进行分析，得出武汉市城市建设预测投资数据，经过与实际投资数据相比较以及模型精度检验，证实所建立的灰色马尔可夫链模型的预测精度很高。运用本模型来预测武汉市城市建设投资规模是可行的、其预测结果是可信的，也为武汉市城市建设的合理投资提供一定的参考依据

Forecast the Urban Construction Investment Scale of Wuhan Based on the Grey Markov Chain

In order to make up for the gray GM(1,1)model’s deficiency which is not suitable for forecasting the stochastic wave data sequence,we combine gray GM(1,1)with Markov Chain which has no following effect characteristic,and then set up the Grey Markov Chain forecast model.The Gray Markov Chain model is set up to analyze and solve the problem of forecasting the urban construction investment scale in Wuhan.After working out the forecast data of urban construction investment in Wuhan,and comparing them with the actual investment data and inspecting the accuracy of the model,we confirm that the forecast results of the Gray Markov Chain model has a very high accuracy.So,it is feasible to forecast the urban construction investment scale of Wuhan by this model.The forecast results are reliable,which provides some references for urban construction investment of Wuhan.