基于机会约束规划的微网运行备用优化配置

为保证微网孤岛运行的可靠性与经济性，配置合理的运行备用容量具有重要意义。考虑到微网内波动功率主要由可再生分布式电源出力的不可控性、机组的故障停运及负荷预测的不准确性引起的，分析了风机出力、光伏出力和负荷短期预测误差的概率统计规律，提出了基于峰谷分时电价(time-of-use price, TOU)的微网发电侧备用与需求侧备用相协调的运行备用优化新策略。以最小化微网运行备用总购买成本为目标、以一定置信水平满足微网要求为机会约束的条件下，确立了最优运行备用容量的数学模型，并利用基于蒙特卡洛(Monte-Carlo)随机模拟的递阶遗传算法(hierarchical genetic algorithm, HGA)对模型求解。最后以微网实例的仿真结果说明了所建模型的有效性。

Optimization configuration of operating reserve in microgrid based on chance-constrained programming

In order to ensure the reliability and economy of isolated microgrid, it is important to set up a certain amount of operating reserve capability. The power fluctuation inside the microgrid mainly results from the uncontrollability of renewable distributed generation output, the failure outage of power generators and the inaccuracy of load prediction. This paper analyzes the probability and statistics pattern of the wind turbine output, photovoltaic power generation output and the short-term load prediction error, and then proposes a new optimizing strategy of reserve capacity based on the time-of-use price (TOU) to coordinate the reserve capacity between the demand side and the generation side. Aiming at minimizing the total procurement cost of operating reserve, under the chance constraint of meeting requirements of microgrid at a certain confidence level, a mathematical model of optimal reserve capacity is established. The mathematical model is solved by means of the hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA) based on Monte-Carlo stochastic simulation. The effectiveness of the model is verified through the simulation of a practical microgrid. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51277057).