基于主成分回归分析法的导水裂缝带高度预测

为减小经验公式法在导水裂缝带高度预测方面存在的误差,探索较高预测精度的导水裂缝带预测方法,本文基于山东滕州矿区积累的实测数据,对采深、煤层厚度、工作面倾向长度、岩性参数、顶板厚度及倾角等六个因素进行了综合分析,借助MATLAB数据分析软件,运用主成分分析的方法,结合回归模型检验分析,建立了适用于滕州矿区的顶板导水裂缝带高度预测回归模型,并与经验公式法所得结果进行了对比分析。结果表明:基于山东滕州矿区12个煤矿的实测数据建立的主成分回归模型,对蒋庄煤矿两验证工作面导水裂缝带高度预测结果分别为56.239 1m、49.102 1m,预测相对误差分别为3.00%、2.83%;运用经验公式法对两工作面导水裂缝带高度预测结果均定为60.00m,预测相对误差分别为-9.89%、-25.65%。由此可见,采用主成分回归分析模型方法预测煤层顶板导水裂缝带发育高度具有较高的准确性,该模型可以更好地预测导水裂缝带发育高度,服务煤层顶板水害防治。

Water flowing fractured zone height prediction based on principal component regression analysis method

In order to reduce the error of the empirical formula method in the prediction of the height of the water-conducting fracture zone, and to explore the prediction method of the water-conducting fracture zone with higher prediction accuracy, based on the measured data accumulated in the Tengzhou mining area in Shandong, this paper comprehensively analyzes the six factors of mining depth, coal seam thickness, working face inclination length, lithological parameters, roof thickness and inclination angle. With the help of MATLAB data analysis software, the method of principal component analysis is used. Combined with the regression model test and analysis, a regression model for predicting the height of the roof water-conducting fracture zone suitable for the mining area was established, and the results were compared and analyzed with the results obtained by the empirical formula method. The results show that principal component regression model, based on measured data from 12 coal mines in Tengzhou mining area, Shandong, predicts that the heights of the water-transmitting fracture zones in the two verification working faces of Jiangzhuang Coal Mine ware 56.2391m and 49.1021m, respectively, and the relative prediction errors are 3.00% and 2.83% respectively; and the empirical formula method predicted the height of the water-conducting fracture zone of the two working faces are 60.00m, and the relative prediction errors are -9.89% and -25.65%, respectively. It can be seen that the principal component regression analysis model method is used to predict the water conductivity of the coal roof. The development height of the fracture zone has high accuracy. This model can better predict the development height of the water-conducting fracture zone and serve the prevention and control of water damage in the coal roof.