黄三角高效生态经济区城市水资源需求预测

黄河三角洲特殊的地理条件使得该地区水资源严重匮乏,已成为制约该地区社会经济发展的瓶颈。在对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区经济发展和水资源现状分析的基础上,分趋势分析(情景1)和规划目标(情景2)两种情景模式,从生活、工业和生态三方面预测和分析三角洲城市需水量。结果表明:在情景1条件下,规划年2015年和2020年城市综合需水量将分别达7.43亿、9.57亿m3,分别为2009年的1.49和1.92倍;在情景2条件下,2015年和2020年城市综合需水量将分别达9.49亿、11.71亿m3,分别为2009年的1.91和2.35倍。建议综合开发利用水资源,增强居民节水意识,推动节水技术在工业生产中的应用,加紧城市污水处理厂和中水回用设施建设,在保证城市污水处理厂出水水质的条件下,提高城市中水回用率,实现城市水资源长期、有效、可持续利用。

Prediction of Urban Water Demand of the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Eco-Economic Zone

The severe shortage of water resources in the Yellow River Delta because of the special geographical conditions has become the bottleneck of the local socioeconomic development.Based on the analysis of economic development and water resources in the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Eco-economic Zone,trend analysis scenario(scenario 1) and planning target scenario(scenario 2) were used to forecast and analyze the urban water demands in terms of the city-life,industry and ecology.The results indicate that in the case of scenario 1,the city integrated water demand will reach 0.743 billion m3 and 0.957 billion m3 in 2015 and 2020,which is 1.49 times and 1.92 times respectively compared to that in 2009;under scenario 2,the city integrated water demand increases to 0.949 billion m3 and 1.171 billion m3 in 2015 and 2020,which is 1.91 times and 2.35 times respectively than that of in 2009.To realize the long-term,effective and sustainable water use,we should explore and use water resources comprehensively,enhance residents’ water-saving consciousness,promote the application of water-saving technology in industrial production,step up the building of urban sewage treatment plants construction and water reuse facility development and improve the urban water reuse rate under the condition of ensuring effluent quality from urban sewage plants.