影响我国分布式能源发展的因素分析

分布式能源（DER）系统因其具有可靠、高效、清洁、环保、配置灵活等优势而具有巨大的发展潜力，在国外已成为一种潮流，在我国发展却并不顺利。为此，采用逆推方法分析影响我国DER发展的主要因素。主要结论是：国家和社会是DER的主要受益者之一，因此政府应加大对DER的政策支持与直接投入；电力部门的既得利益受到威胁，因而希望电力部门自觉地“积极推动” DER的建设是不可能的；用户使用DER优先考虑的是经济性，但组成经济性的三大成本要素预期不容乐观：燃料市场价格波动与供应存在的不稳定性导致燃料成本具有不确定性，核心动力设备的国产化程度不高导致固定投资成本居高不下，用户环境的动态变化与技术支持的先天不足导致运行维护成本也不容小视。因此，推行DER项目，必须科学论证，总结经验，谨慎推广。

FACTORS RESTRICTING DISTIRBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES (DER) IN CHINA

The distributed energy resouces (DER) has great potentiality for its various advantages like being highly reliable, efficient, clean, environment friendly, and being equipped with scaleable technologies. Even though being a developmental trend in the world, DER hasn't been developed well in China. Summing up advantages of the DER, this paper analyzed the main factors restricting the development of DER in China by the Backward reasoning Method. The main conclusions are as follows: (1)since the society is one of the main beneficiaries of DER, the government should give more support from all kinds of policies and add more input direct to DER; (2) electric power utilities will not participate in actively promoting the development of DER since their vested interest will be threatened by the DER; (3) in addition, being economical is first taken into account when the DER is applied by customers, but the anticipation is not optimistic for being economical depending upon three main factors of costs; (4) the fuel cost is subject to the fuel price fluctuation and supply instability, the low localization level of main power equipments will lead to a high fixed investment cost; (5) the change of operating conditions and the lack of technology support will result in a relatively high operation and maintenance cost. Therefore, this paper suggests that the unrealistic optimism should be avoided and the experience should be reviewed continuously in implementing the DER and its expansion should be taken every cautious step in a reasonable and scientific way.