我国铁矿石需求预测模型及应用

本文考虑了铁矿石需求量与钢、铁产量的关系，用生长曲线模型描述了粗钢产量与GDP的关系，分别对我国粗钢产量峰值在4．0和4．5亿t，铁钢比为0．95和0．85的场景下的铁矿石的需求量，进行了模拟计算及预测。生长曲线模型的数据拟合优度达到了95％，模型模拟结果与历史数据吻合较好。对中国2006～2010年铁矿石需求量进行了预测，在给定场景下，2010年铁矿石需求量的高限和低限分别为8．8亿t和10．7亿t。结果表明，铁钢比、粗钢生产的峰值量是影响铁矿石需求量的主要因素。为了降低钢铁生产对铁矿石的依赖，中国应该更多地采用废钢炼钢，减少环境污染，走钢铁行业循环发展的道路。

CHINA''''S IRON ORE DEMAND PREDICTION MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

An iron ore consumption forecasting model is formulated with consideration of the iron and steel making process and the growth curve of steel production in China.GDP is used as an explanatory variable in the growth curve model,instead of time.The iron ore consumption from 2006 to 2010 is predicted at different levels of China's peak steel production,and iron to steel ratios.The iron ore demand will rise from 726.18 million tons in 2004 to between 880.59 and 1066.3 million tons in 2010 under the low and high growth scenario used in this paper.The difference between these forecasts highlights the sensitivity of iron ore consumption to iron to steel ratio,and steel production.To reduce China's reliance on iron ore,China needs to use more steel scrap rather than iron to produce steel.