中国天然气进口空间格局演进及优化路径

在天然气进口依存度不断提高的形势下，如何构建合理、安全的天然气进口空间格局，是关乎我国天然气供应安全的重大课题。为此综合运用市场占有率、多样性指数、进口市场结构优化指数（IBSCI）、进口市场结构与出口国比较优势的匹配度、进口治理安全指数等指标，定量分析了我国天然气进口空间格局的演进及优化情况，并与日本及韩国进行动态比较。结果表明：中国的进口市场结构不断得到优化，多元化战略实施初见效果，但很多方面与日本及韩国相比还存在着一定的差距。进而从比较优势、治理安全的视角提出了中国天然气进口空间格局优化路径方向：① LNG 方面，积极培育挪威、文莱的进口市场，巩固澳大利亚、卡塔尔的LNG 进口份额，探索从加拿大、美国进口的可能性；②管道天然气方面，继续完善西北、东北、西南的天然气战略进口通道建设，加强与俄罗斯、缅甸等国的能源外交。

Evolution and optimization of China's natural gas import spatial framework

With the increasing dependence on gas import, and for the purpose of the natural gas supply security in China, it is extremelyessential to establish a rational and safe natural gas import spatial framework. In this paper, China’s natural gas import spatial frameworkwas quantitatively analyzed for its evolution and optimization and dynamically compared with that of Japan and Korea by using such indexesas market share, diversity index , import market structure optimization index, matching degree between import market structure andexporter comparative advantage and import governance safety index. It is shown that China’s import market structure is being continuouslyoptimized and the effects of diversification strategy emerged, but China still falls behind Japan and Korea in many aspects. Optimizationpathways and directions were proposed from the perspectives of comparative advantage and governance safety. It is necessary todevelop LNG import markets in Norway and Brunei, to strengthen LNG import shares in Australia and Qatar, and to explore the possibilityto import LNG from Canada and America. As for pipeline natural gas, it is necessary to construct natural gas strategic import pathwayscontinuously in NW, NE and SW China and to strengthen the energy diplomacy with Russia and Burma.