基于灰色预测的驾驶员-汽车系统侧翻预测

为了保证高速行车安全性，研究了基于预瞄-预测模型的汽车侧翻评价指标估计问题，提出了一种基于预瞄-预测驾驶员模型的侧翻预测方法。以高重心汽车为研究对象，建立了三自由度汽车模型和预瞄驾驶员模型；基于预瞄-跟随理论和灰色预测理论，搭建了预瞄-预测驾驶员模型；根据汽车侧翻的机理提出了能反映侧翻情况的指标--横向载荷转移率，并在此基础上提出了汽车侧翻指标估计-预测模型；基于主动转向控制策略和汽车侧翻指标估计-预测模型构建了汽车侧翻预测系统，并进行了不同工况下的仿真分析，从而验证了侧翻预测系统的有效性。

Vehicle Rollover Predicting Systems Based on Grey Prediction Theory

In order to guarantee the high speed train operation safety， an estimation of rollover evaluation index was studied based on preview-estimate driver model，and a vehicle rollover predicting system was designed based on preview-estimate driver model.Focused on the cars with high center of gravity， a three degree-of-freedom vehicle rollover dynamic model and a driver model were built.And the preview-estimate driver model was established based on the preview-follower theory and the theory of grey prediction.According to the mechanism of rollover， the LTR that could reflect the rollover situation was introduced， and the vehicle rollover index estimation-prediction model was proposed.And the vehicle rollover prediction system was established based on the active-steering rollover prevention control strategy and estimate-prediction model of vehicle rollover index.The rollover prediction system was proposed for the simulation analysis under different working conditions， and the effectiveness of the proposed system was confirmed.