我国天然气需求实证分析

本文采用美国计量软件Stata 13.0建立天然气需求计量模型,对我国天然气消费量与GDP、人口和产业等参数的相关性进行分析,进而研究了第二产业天然气消费与城镇燃气、工业燃气、发电用气、化工燃气的关系,得到了GDP是影响我国天然气消费量的重要因素、我国天然气消费增长率与第二产业天然气消费增长率高度正相关等重要认识。在此基础上,对我国2025年和2030年天然气需求量进行了预测,分别为3 406亿m3和4 352亿m3。鉴于我国天然气供需缺口加大的趋势,提出多措并举,加大天然气产供储销体系建设和能源替代等改革发展的建议。

An empirical analysis of the supply and demand of natural gas in China

This article adopts the method of empirical analysis. On the demand side, the correlation of China"s natural gas consumption with GDP, population and the first, second, third industry added value is analyzed, and the relationship between natural gas consumption in the second industry and urban gas, industrial gas, power generation gas and chemical gas is studied. On the supply side, the relationship between the growth rate of China"s natural gas supply and the growth rate of domestic natural gas and the growth rate of imported natural gas is studied. On this basis, the correlation between natural gas consumption and per capita GDP in China and the United States and the change of natural gas consumption structure in major industries are analyzed respectively, and the understanding of the situation and development trend of natural gas supply and demand in China is deepened,and the suggestions for reform and development are put forward accordingly.