预测水驱油田含水率的 Von Bertalanffy 模型

基于水驱油田含水率的变化规律，将预测生物生长的 Von Bertalanffy 模型用于含水率预测，并取极限含水率为 1 。 根据油田实际生产数据，应用最大线性相关系数求得模型常数 b 和 k 的值，得到预测水驱油田含水率随开发时间变化的新模型，并利用胜坨油田和双河油田的实际含水率数据对该模型进行验证。 结果表明，这 2 个油田的含水率预测结果的平均相对误差分别为 4.69% 和 1.12% 。 该模型预测精度较高，能够对油田含水率进行预测，可指导水驱油田的开发。

Von Bertalanffy model for water cut prediction in water flood field

Based on the changing law of water cut in water flood field, Von Bertalanffy model for predicting biological growth was used to predict water cut, and the limit water cut is 1. Based on the actual data of oilfield, the value of model constant was obtained by maximum linear correlation coefficient, and a new model for predicting water cut change with developing time in water flood field. This model was validated by actual water cut value from Shengtuo Oilfield and Shuanghe Oilfield. The result shows that the relative errors of the water cut in the two fields are 4.69% and 1.12% respectively. The prediction accuracy of this model is high, therefore, it can be used to predict water cut of oilfield and guide development of water flood field.