低碳经济背景下山东省“十二五”期间经济社会发展情景研究

发展以低能耗、低污染、低排放为特征的低碳经济,是山东省落实科学发展观、推进生态文明建设的必然选择。山东省人均碳排放明显高于全国平均水平,且两者之差几乎逐年增大。通过对山东省人均碳排放与人均GDP、能源强度、产业结构、城市化水平、对外贸易开放度的协整分析,分析结果表明碳排放与各因素之间存在长期均衡关系。另外,从碳排放的驱动因素出发,依据山东省已有的主要规划和中长期目标,以及关于未来经济趋势的分析,设置了基准、强化低碳经济、粗放型经济三种不同的发展情景对山东省"十二五"期间碳排放的演变趋势分析。研究表明2015年碳排放总量的取值区间约为31023.77×104~34461.88×104t,碳排放强度将在2010年0.63t/万元GDP的基础上降低9.98%~18.96%,山东省在采取积极减排措施的情况下基本可以实现碳排放强度降低18%的目标。提出了相关对策建议:优化能源结构,加大技术投入;调整产业结构,转变增长方式;完善政策机制,构建绿色贸易体系。

A Study on the Economic and Social Development Scenarios for Shandong Province on Its Path to Low-carbon Economy during the 12-th Five-Year Plan

A low-carbon economy,characterized by low energy consumption,low pollution,and low emission,has been deemed by Shandong province as the path it must take in order to apply the ＂Scientific Outlook on Development＂ and push ecological civilization construction.Shandong＇s per capita carbon emission is consider- ably higher than the national level and the gap is actually increasing yeady.A co-integration analysis of Shandong＇s per capita carbon emission level,per capital GDP,energy intensity,industrial mix,degree of urban- ization,and the degree of opening of foreign trade shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emission and various related factors.Based on the factors driving carbon emissions,Shandong＇s existing major plans and long and medium-term goals ,and analyses of economic trends ,researchers developed three development scenarios--benchmark economy,intensive low-carbon economy,and extensive economy--to analyze the trend in carbon emissions of Shandong province during the twelfth Five-Year Plan period.Studies show that Shandong＇s total carbon emission in 2015 will reach 31023.77×104-34461.88×104t and carbon e- mission intensity will drop by 9.98%-18.96% from 0.63t per 10000 yuan GDP in 2010.Shandong province would basically be able to meet its objective of reducing carbon emission intensity by 18% if emission-re- ducing measures are taken in a positive manner.This article puts forward suggestions on reducing emissions, including optimizing energy mix,increasing investment in technology,changing industrial mix ,adjusting mode of growth,perfecting policy mechanisms ,and developing a green trade system.