基于材料参数的中支烟烟气常规成分释放量预测模型

为建立基于材料参数的中支烟烟气常规成分释放量预测模型，采用中心组合结合正交试验设计方法设计了不同材料参数样品，使用线性回归和逐步回归方法构建了中支烟烟气总粒相物、焦油、烟碱、CO和水分释放量以及烟支开式吸阻和总通风率等7个预测模型，根据统计学原理中交叉验证标准差（RMSECV）最小及预测值与实测值线性相关系数最大的原则筛选出最优预测模型。采用市售中支烟对各预测模型进行了验证。结果表明:7个模型的预测精度良好，总粒相物、焦油、烟碱、CO、水分释放量以及烟支开式吸阻和总通风率平均预测相对偏差分别为4.0%、2.1%、6.0%、4.5%、8.3%、6.6%和3.2%，且对于不同配方、辅材参数的中支烟具有较好的适用性。 

Prediction models for routine smoke component releases from demi-slim cigarettes based on their material parameters

In order to establish prediction models for the routine smoke components released from demi-slim cigarettes based on their material parameters, cigarette samples with different material parameters were designed by a central composite design combined with an orthogonal design. Seven prediction equations for the releases of TPM (total particulate matter), tar, nicotine, CO, moisture in mainstream smoke and the open draw resistance and total ventilation rate of the demi-slim cigarettes were established by using linear regression and stepwise regression methods. The optimal models were selected according to the statistical principle of minimum root mean squares error of cross validation (RMSECV) and maximum linearly dependent coefficients between the predicted and measured values. The models were verified with commercial demi-slim cigarettes. The results showed that the average prediction relative deviations of TPM, tar, nicotine, CO and moisture releases, the open draw resistance and the total ventilation rate were 4.0%, 2.1%, 6.0%, 4.5%, 8.3%, 6.6% and 3.2%, respectively, which indicated that the models had good prediction accuracies and suitable applicability for demi-slim cigarette designs with different tobacco blends and physical material parameters.