近51年遵义县气候变化对烤烟移栽期的影响

本研究利用1961—2011年遵义县气象观测站的3—9月气象资料,分析了气温和降水量的气候倾向率和累积距平率,并应用Thornth waite Memorial模型计算气候生产力对烤烟生育期内气温和降水量变化的响应情况,由此探讨烤烟的最佳移栽期。结果表明;(1)9月中旬气温普遍低于烤烟生长适宜温度,不利于烤烟成熟期干物质及营养成分的合成和积累;(2)6—8月温度适宜,月均降雨量能够满足烤烟需求,7—8月降雨呈增加趋势,但集中度较高;(3)满足烤烟移栽条件的起始日期为4月10日左右,气候生产力分析表明,4月20日移栽优于4月10日。综上可知,2012年遵义县最佳移栽日期为4月20日左右开始,最迟在5月1日之前完成。

Effect of Climate Change on Transplanting Time of Flue-cured Tobacco in Zunyi County during 51 Years

Climatic tendency and accumulative anomaly percentage of temperature and precipitation were calculated by using the climate data from March to September (1961-2011) from climate station in Zunyi county, and response of the climate productivity to temperature and precipitation changes during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco was calculated by using the Thornth Waite Memorial model, so that the best transplanting time could be identified. The results showed that the temperature in middle September was generally lower than the best temperature for the growth of flue-cured tobacco, which was not favorable for the accumulation of dry matters and nutrient components during the maturation stage. The temperature from June to August and monthly precipitation were favorable to the growth of flue-cured tobacco. The precipitation increased from July to August but did not well distribute. Although the earliest day for flue-cured tobacco transplanting was April 10, the analysis of climate productivity showed that April 20 would be better than April 10. Therefore, we propose that the best starting date for tobacco transplanting in Zunyi county should April 20, but no later than May first.