长江中下游洪水联机实时预报系统

长期以来，长江洪水预报一直采取手工作业方式，为了提高洪水预报的实时性、准确性和可靠性，长委水文局预报处与其他单位共同研制出长江中下游洪水联机实时预报系统，于１９９５年投入运用。该系统由预报作业、水情检索和系统管理三部分构成，融合了先进实用的模型理论、计算机信息技术和专家经验。实际运用中，采用预报实时校正的方法，由预报员对预报值进行比较分析后确认。系统试用结果表明：由于将计算机系统与预报员作业连为一体，提高了成果质量和工作效率，将实时跟踪能力强的ＣＲＦＰＤＰ模型投入作业运行，提供了分析预报结果合理性的有力工具；利用预报员的经验，注重对模型预报值的可靠性和可能的偏差方面分析是非常必要的。另外针对系统数据库管理问题，提出了研制新的洪水预报系统的设想。

Real-time on-line flood forecast system for middle-lower Yangtze

Manual operation has been always employed for Yangtze flood forecasting for a long time. In order to improve the on-line applicability, accuracy and reliability of the flood forecasting method, an online real-time flood forecasting system for the middle and lower Yangtze River was developed by the Hydrology Bureau of the Changjiang Water Resources Commission in collaboration with other units. This system came into operation in 1995,it consists of three parts: forecasting operation, water condition information retrieval and system management. The advanced applied modelling theory, computer information technology and expert's experience are integrated together. In the actual application, the real time rectification method is used to forecast the water condition, and the forecasted values are affirmed by forecasters after analysis and comparison of them. The trial use of the system shows that the results' quality and the work efficiency are raised because the forecaster's operation coordinates the computer's operation, a powerful tool is provided to analyse the reasonableness of forecasted results sincs the CRFPDP model is put into operation, and it is necessary to make use of the forecaster's experience to analyse the reliability and the deviation direction of forecasted values obtained from the model. In addition, Some conceptions on developing a new flood forecast system are put forward for solving problems of the management of the system data base.