基于混合法的电网连锁故障评估模型

综合解析法和随机模拟法，提出了基于混合法的电网连锁故障评估模型。应用Markov空间理论建立了计及主保护和远后备保护作用的故障切除概率模型，从而将基于预想事故行为指标和同心松弛法快速筛选出的预想线路故障集划分为不同的初始故障状态，确定出初始故障集；根据实时运行条件下的发电机、线路、负荷的可靠性模型模拟相应的后续故障；基于风险理论定义了连锁故障路径严重度指标，以此评估出系统中的薄弱环节。算例结果验证了该模型的合理性和有效性。

Evaluation model of cascading failure in power grid based on hybrid method

Based on analytical method and stochastic simulation method, an assessment model of cascading failure in power grid based on hybrid method is proposed. A model for calculating the probability of failure removal of the relay protection system considering the effect of major protection and remote backup protection is established by using Markov space theory. The expected fault of line is screened rapidly by using the index of contingency behavior and the concentric relaxation method, and it is divided into different initial fault conditions in order to determine the set of initial fault. The follow-up fault is simulated based on reliability model of generator, line and load in real-time operating conditions. The index of severity of cascading failure path is defined based on risk theory in order to assess the weak links in the system. The results of simulation show that the model is rational and effective.