柔性互联配电网概率潮流算法研究

随着柔性直流配电技术的快速发展，直流配电网通过电压源换流器连接交流配电网构成的柔性互联配电网已成为当前的研究热点，但到目前为止，对于不确定性分布式电源接入的柔性互联配电网概率潮流计算尚未有文献进行研究。针对缺乏这种柔性互联配电网概率潮流研究的现状，文章开展不确定性研究，在分析了几种常规概率潮流计算方法后，以三点估计法结合改进交直流交替迭代算法作为柔性互联配电网概率潮流实现算法；以Nataf变换方法结合Cholesky分解进行不确定非正态输入变量的相关性处理；以IEEE 33节点配电系统结合国内首个五端直流示范工程-直流配电中心作为算例，验证了所提算法的有效性。

Research on Probabilistic Load Flow Algorithm for Flexible Interconnected Distribution Network

With the rapid development of flexible DC distribution technology, the flexible interconnection distribution network composed of a DC distribution network connected to an AC distribution network through a voltage source converter has become a current research hotspot, but so far for uncertain distributed generation there is no literature to study the probabilistic load flow calculation of the flexible interconnection distribution network with power access. In view of the current situation of lack of flexible interconnection distribution network probabilistic load flow research, the article carries out uncertainty research. After analyzing several conventional probabilistic load flow calculation methods, the three-point estimation method combined with the improved AC/DC alternating iteration algorithm is used as the algorithm for the realization of probabilistic load flow in flexible interconnection distribution network; using the Nataf transform method and Cholesky decomposition to process the correlation of uncertain non-normal input variables; taking the IEEE33 node distribution system and the first domestic five-terminal DC demonstration project-DC distribution center as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.