基于群体偏好的水电企业年发电计划的制定

由于径流的不确定,电力市场下水电企业制定的年发电计划都存在着一定的风险,影响着企业的经济效益.对于水电企业而言,需要对发电计划的风险和利润进行评估,构造兼顾利润最大和风险最小这两个矛盾目标的折衷发电计划.文中针对这一问题进行研究,提出了一种基于入库径流频率计算并计及风险的水电企业年发电计划制定模型,将风险管理中的概率分析方法和群决策理论引入发电计划方案的利润和风险评估中,并给出了求解方法,为解决考虑风险情况下水电企业年发电计划制定问题提供了新的途径.最后以一算例证明了该模型和求解方法的可行性.

Study on year generation schedule for hydropower enterprises based on group decision making method

Because of the uncertainty of Runoff, the year generation schedule for hydropower enterprise has some certain risks, which may influence the economic benefits of hydropower. So it has become a major concern for hydropower enterprises to evaluate the risk and the profit of the year generation schedule, and build the compromised generation schedule to maximize the profits and minimize the risks incurred. In order to resolve this problem, a new model based on runoff frequency is developed for building optimal generation schedule with risks taken into account. The probability analysis and group decision making method are used in the process of evaluating the risk and profit of the generation schedule, and the method for solving the problem is presented. At last an example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the developed model and methods.