基于VAR模型的云南省能源需求预测

分析了云南省经济发展过程中能源消费发展趋势，对其1978--2010年能源消费和经济增长进行了深入分析，利用VAR模型对云南省2020年的能源需求进行了预测，得到云南省2020年能源需求总量为23476．24万t标准煤，同时预狈4云南省2020年GDP为18185．29万元，不能完成国家制定的2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40％～45％的目标，根据预测结果，提出了云南省关于能源发展的对策建议。

Energy Demands Forecasting in Yunnan Based on VAR Model

The development trend of energy consumption with the economic development of Yunnau Province was discussed. And energy consumption and economic growth in 1978 -2010 were investigated. The energy demand in Yunnan Province in year 2020 was forecasted using VAR model. It was predicted that the total energy demand in Yunnan Province in 2020 was 234. 7624 million tons of standard coal. And the predicted GDP in Yunnan Province in year 2020 was 181. 8529 million Yuan. The target set by the state that in year 2020 the carbon dioxide emissions of unit of gross domestic product should be decreased by 40% ~ 45% than that in 2005 could not be completed. According to the predicted results, some countermeasures and suggestions on en- ergy development in Yunnan Province were proposed.