Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data

Although the dams produce remarkable social and economic benefits, the threat made by unsafe dams to the life and property of people who live in the lower river area is un-negligible. Based on the monitoring data which reflect the safety condition of dams, the risk degree concept is proposed and the analysis system and model for evaluating risk degree (rate) are established in this paper by combining the reliability theory and field monitoring data. The analysis method for risk degree is presented based on Bayesian approach. A five-grade risk degree system for dam operation risk and corresponding risk degree is put forward according to the safety condition of dams. The operation risks of four cascade dams on some river are analyzed by the model and approach presented here and the result is adopted by the owner.