海河流域水资源脆弱性及其评价

水资源脆弱性是评价水资源系统对自然条件变动或人类开发利用影响承载能力的重要指标,其评价对于水资源保护工作非常重要。从自然因素、人为因素、综合因素三方面给出13个指标,利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,综合相关研究及经验确定各指标的标准值,综合进行区域水资源脆弱性评价。以海河流域为例开展了实例研究,海河流域现状的水资源脆弱度为59.7,属于中度脆弱区;在未来气候变化条件下,经过人工水资源调控措施,海河流域2020年、2030年水资源脆弱度分别为58.64、58.63,证明水资源调控措施将会改善海河流域水资源条件。该方法对流域级水资源系统的脆弱性评价有重要意义。

Water Resources Vulnerability and Its Assessment of Haihe River Basin

Vulnerability of water resources is a vital index to assess the effects of natural changes or human use against the water resources system and vulnerability assessment is important for protecting water resources.In this paper,a framework of water resources assessment was outlined and applied to the Haihe river basin.A list of 13 indicators for vulnerability assessment were identified and categorized including the natural factors,human factors,and comprehensive factors.The weight of each indictor was calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process,and the standard value for each indicator was obtained from the referenced researches.The results showed that the water resources vulnerability value of the Haihe river basin is 59.7 under the current situation,which indicated that the Haihe river basin is moderate vulnerable.With the future climate changes and human regulation and control of water resources in the Haihe river,the predicted water resources vulnerability value could be 58.64 and 58.63 for year 2020 and 2030,respectively,which implied that the regulation and control measures can improve the water resources conditions of the Haihe river basin.Thus,this method is beneficial for assessing the vulnerability of water resources under historical and predicted situations.