| 山火灾害对电网故障率的时空影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴勇军,薛禹胜,陆佳政,谢云云,徐泰山,李文云,吴琛. 山火灾害对电网故障率的时空影响[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2016, 40(3): 14-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴勇军 薛禹胜 陆佳政 谢云云 徐泰山 李文云 吴琛 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京理工大学自动化学院, 江苏省南京市 210094; 南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院), 江苏省南京市 211106,南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院), 江苏省南京市 211106,国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心, 湖南省长沙市 410000,南京理工大学自动化学院, 江苏省南京市 210094; 南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院), 江苏省南京市 211106,南瑞集团公司(国网电力科学研究院), 江苏省南京市 211106,云南电力调度控制中心, 云南省昆明市 650011,云南电力调度控制中心, 云南省昆明市 650011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228204);国家自然科学基金重点项目(61533010);中泰合作基金资助项目(5151101161);云南电网公司科技项目(YDTZ-F2014-105) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据山火造成电力设备故障的途径和机理,建立输电线在山火灾害下的故障率修正模型,提出按电网故障率的时空分布预警防御算法。将山火信息与地理环境及气象信息相结合,预测山火的蔓延行为;动态评估线路闪络概率,预报输电线故障率的时空分布。使风险越大的潜在故障得到越高的关注度,提高电网停电防御系统对山火灾害的预警能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 输电线 山火 故障率 停电风险 在线评估 预警防御 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-11-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-12-24 |
Space-time Impact of Forest Fire on Power Grid Fault Probability |
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| WU Yongjun,XUE Yusheng,LU Jiazheng,XIE Yunyun,XU Taishan,LI Wenyun and WU Chen. Space-time Impact of Forest Fire on Power Grid Fault Probability[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2016, 40(3): 14-20 |
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| Authors: | WU Yongjun XUE Yusheng LU Jiazheng XIE Yunyun XU Taishan LI Wenyun WU Chen |
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| Affiliation: | School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China; NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China,NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China,Disaster Prevention and Reduction Center of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Company, Changsha 410000, China,School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China; NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China,NARI Group Corporation(State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China,Yunnan Power Dispatching and Control Center, Kunming 650011, China and Yunnan Power Dispatching and Control Center, Kunming 650011, China |
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| Abstract: | According to the ways and mechanisms of electrical equipment faults caused by forest fire, a modified model of transmission line fault probability is developed. And an early-warning defense method based on the spatial-temporal distribution of power grid fault probability is proposed. Firstly, by combining forest fire information, geographic environments and meteorological information, the method is able to predict the forest fire behaviors and dynamically assess the transmission line flashover probability. Then, the spatial-temporal distribution fault probability can be obtained so that the higher the risk of potential faults is, the greater concern they will receive, thus raising the early-warning ability of power grids to prevent the forest fire. This work is jointly supported by National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No. 2013CB228204), the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 61533010), China-Thailand Cooperation Fund Project(No. 5151101161), and Yunnan Power Grid Company(No. YDTZ-F2014-105). |
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| Keywords: | transmission line forest fire fault probability blackout risk on-line assessment early-warning and defense |
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