The impact of model performance history information on users' confidence in decision models: An experimental examination |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Chair of Innovation Management, University of Bamberg, Kärntenstrasse 7, 96052 Bamberg, Germany;2. Research Center for IT Design (ITeG), University of Kassel, Chair for Information Systems, Pfannkuchstrasse 1, 34119 Kassel, Germany;1. IDRAC Business School, France;2. John Molson School of Business Concordia University, Canada;3. Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain;1. Business School, Hohai University, Boxue Building 612, Nanjing 211100, China;2. Andalusian Research Institute in Data Science and Computational Intelligence (DaSCI), University of Granada, Granada 18071, Spain;3. Faculty of Computing and Information Technology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia |
| |
| Abstract: | Effective decision support systems must supply decision makers with information that allows them to make correct judgments. Unfortunately, human intuitive judgments are subject to a number of biases. Among the judgments that a user of a decision support system must make is the selection of an appropriate model. When a decision maker is presented with a history of a model's usage and frequency of success during that usage, the decision maker must judge how confident he/she is in the output that comes from that model. We show, in a laboratory setting using 75 student subjects and 48 managers, that decision makers can be manipulated into irrational confidence levels. In a corporate setting, over- and under-confidence will result in either overreliance on unreliable models or failure to take advantage of a useful tool. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
