流体力学仿真软件可信度评估与预测能力

针对爆轰流体力学过程的控制方程和辅助方程，剖析模型参数、模型形式和数值方法等的不确定因素，列举爆轰流体力学模型的不确定性因素并开展敏感度分析。针对几个重要参数，发展高维参数抽样技术，结合爆轰产物JWL状态方程的圆筒试验，开展自主研发的爆轰弹塑性流体动力学LAD2D仿真软件的可信度评估研究，给出可信度评估结果。此方法和研究思路为复杂工程仿真软件可信度评估提供一种有效手段。

Confidence evaluation and prediction ability of hydrodynamics simulation software

As to the control equations and auxiliary equations of detonation fluid dynamics, the uncertain factors, such as the model parameters, the model form, and numerical methods, are analyzed, the uncertainty factors of detonation fluid dynamics model are listed, and their sensitivities are analyzed. Focusing on several important parameters, the high dimension parameter sampling method is developed. The reliability evaluation of the LAD2D software for the simulation of detonation fluid dynamics is carried out by combing with the JWL equation of state in the cylinder test. The reliability evaluation results are given finally. The method and research idea provides a very effective technology for evaluating the credibility of complex engineering simulation software.