配电系统与通信相关的风险评估

为了研究通信故障对配电系统安全可靠供电的影响，分析配电系统中通信故障对供电的影响，提出适用于评估通信故障影响的若干风险指标.根据通信故障模式的不同，提出电力通信设备三状态风险模型.考虑到配电系统中通信设备和配变电设备功能上的依赖性和相互关系，提出采用关联矩阵描述设备之间的关联联系，将该模型应用到基于序贯Monte Carlo模拟法的配电系统风险评估算法中.采用IEEE RBTS Bus 2算例对所提指标、模型和算法进行分析验证.结果表明，考虑通信设备故障后配电系统的风险状况更严峻；通信设施故障不一定导致电网发生停电，但是能够影响到电力设施的正常运行.通信故障是电网风险评估需要考虑的重要因素之一.

Risk assessment of distribution power systems considering communication systems

The impact of communication system malfunction or failure on the reliability of distribution systems was analyzed, and a series of new metrics for assessing the risk of distribution systems were proposed. The three-state communication equipment risk model was proposed based on its failure model. Considering the interdependencies between communication equipments and power equipments, an adjacency matrix was introduced to show the interdependencies. A risk assessment algorithm based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method was presented to assess the risk of distribution systems considering the communication equipment failures. An application in IEEE RBTS Bus 2 shows the effectiveness of the risk assessment technique with the proposed metrics. Results indicate that communication system malfunction or failure can affect the distribution systems in several aspects. Communication system may not directly lead to power system outage, but it can affect the power system. Communication failures are important factor that should be considered in power system risk assessment.