黑龙江省财政农业投入与产出关系模型分析

黑龙江省财政农业投入是影响其农业产出的重要因素.对《黑龙江省统计年鉴》中1978-2007年财政对农业投入的数据进行了实证分析,建立了双变量回归模型,通过协整检验进行了回归分析与弹性分析,得到了黑龙江省财政农业投入与产出数据的变化特征.模型详细探讨了黑龙江省财政农业投入与农业总产出的长期及短期均衡状况,说明了财政农业投入与农业总产出数据变化的量化特征.从长期看,黑龙江省财政对农业投入总量呈递增趋势,但农业投入占农业总产出比重不高,而且出现起伏波动,受政策、自然等因素影响大,农业投入带有一定的随意性与不稳定性.

The Model Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Agricultural Input and Output in Heilongjiang Province

The financial investment in agriculture of Heilongjiang Province is an important factor impacting its agricultural output. In this paper, Statistical Yearbook of Heilongjiang Province in fiscal year 1978 -2007 of agricultural canducts the empirical data analysis, through the co - integration test, the establishment of two-variable regression model, and gets the data changes characteristics of financial agricultural input and output in Heilongjiang Province. The paper has discussed in detail the financial investment in agriculture in Heilongjiang Province with a total output of agriculture and the long-term and short-term balance, shows that the financial investment in agriculture and the total agricultural output in the quantitative characteristics of data change. In the long run, the total investment of Heilongjiang financial agricultural increasing trend, but the agricultural investment proportion of agricultural output is not high, and presents fluctuating by policy, natural and influencing factors of agricultural input, with certain arbitrariness and instability.