Performance and reliability prediction for evolving service-oriented software systems

During software system evolution, software architects intuitively trade off the different architecture alternatives for their extra-functional properties, such as performance, maintainability, reliability, security, and usability. Researchers have proposed numerous model-driven prediction methods based on queuing networks or Petri nets, which claim to be more cost-effective and less error-prone than current practice. Practitioners are reluctant to apply these methods because of the unknown prediction accuracy and work effort. We have applied a novel model-driven prediction method called Q-ImPrESS on a large-scale process control system from ABB consisting of several million lines of code. This paper reports on the achieved performance prediction accuracy and reliability prediction sensitivity analyses as well as the effort in person hours for achieving these results.