大庆外围低渗透油田产量递减分形特征及预测

根据大庆西部外围低渗透、特低渗透油田的开采动态,应用重标极差分析方法研究了油田产量递减的分形特征,计算了产量的Hurst指数,计算值均大于0.5,揭示了大庆西部外围低渗透油田产量变化趋势的持久性,表现出了隐藏于随机性之后的有序性,说明产量递减特性是可以延伸的.在此基础上,应用能解决随机干扰影响的基于残差的改进灰色模型和灰色等维新息递补预测法的组合,优化灰色模型拟合并预测了油田产量的递减变化,拟合的平均相对误差为1.82%,表明重标极差分析方法和组合优化灰色模型相结合是实现低渗透油田产量高精度预测的有效方法.

Fractal characteristics and grey model forecasting of production decline of peripheral low permeability oilfield of Daqing

In view of producing characteristics of peripheral low and extra-low permeability oilfield of west Daqing,fractal characteristics of production decline were researched by R/S analysis method. The Hurst indexes of output were calculated with the values all larger than 0. 5. The tendency of output change of the peripheral low permeability oilfield of west Daqing was durable. The orderliness concealed behind the randomness was demonstrated,and it is proved that the production decline characteristic is extendab...