Assessment of transmission cost recovery applying marginal pricing in hydrothermal power systems

This paper describes an integrated framework to evaluate short-run marginal costs (SRMC) in hydrothermal systems, taking into account the chronological aspects of reservoir operation, transmission constraints, equipment failures, hydrological variation and load uncertainty. The resulting SRMC values are used to calculate circuit revenues, which are then compared with investment requirements. It is shown that the representation of these probabilistic factors substantially increases revenues, in contrast with the widely reported under-recovery found in studies which only represent normal operating conditions. Case studies with the Brazilian North-Northeastern system are presented and discussed.