似然比检验在区域斜坡稳定性敏感因素分析中的应用

敏感因素分析是区域斜坡稳定性评价的前提.设计了逐个加入影响因素进行嵌套模型的优劣程度对比的试验方法,将巫山县新址西区作为试验区,选取影响区域斜坡稳定性的几个因素为自变量,历史滑坡的发生为因变量,建立Logistic回归模型.通过对回归方程的似然比检验进行模型优劣程度的对比,得出影响本区斜坡稳定性敏感因素的程度.试验区斜坡稳定性敏感因素程度计算结果依次为:岩土类型、高程、地下水位埋深、距有影响构造线距离、坡度或坡形.

Application on Likelihood Ratio Test Used for Sensitivity Factors of Area Slope Stability

Analysis of sensitivity factors is the first step of evaluation of area slope stabiltty. The west area of new Wushan county was taken as an experimental area. A logistic regression model was set up in which independent variables were landform, physiognomy, lithological charater, geological structure conditions and groundwater condition and dependent variable was historical landslide events. Through the comparison of likelihood ratio test results, the sensitivity degrees of affecting slope stability factors were determined. The calculated results of sensitivity degree in sequence are lithological character, elevation, groundwater level, distance to affecting structure line, gradient and slope shape.