基于逆向扩散和分层赋权的黄河堤防工程安全评价

针对黄河堤防工程安全的评价问题，首先基于后果逆向扩散法，构建了多层次半结构性的评价指标体系；基于分层赋权思路，对多层次的黄河堤防评价体系进行赋权。第1层（输入层）通过计算熵值权向量来确定指标的数学权向量，第2层（准则层）采用熵值权向量、等权重和经验赋权法3种权向量，利用模糊评价模型进行计算对比。选择黄河下游6个典型堤段进行实例计算，第2层采用了3种权重进行计算，第1种为熵值权向量（0.394,0.606）；第2种为等权重（0.500,0.500）；第3种为主观权重（0.600,0.400）。根据评价结果可知，综合评价值趋势和走向基本一致。工程因素子系统最优的是堤防1、3、4，非工程因素子系统最优的是堤防5、6，熵值权向量和等权重评价结果均为堤防5黄河北岸陶城铺段堤防最优；主观权重评价为堤防3黄河南岸东平湖段堤防最优。后果逆向扩散法可以快速全面的确定安全影响因子，分层赋权可以有效的克服人为权重的影响，从而保证获得客观合理的安全评价值，并能根据评价结果找到堤防工程安全相对薄弱的因素，为黄河堤防的安全运用提供数据支撑。

Research on safety evaluation of Yellow River embankment based on consequence-reverse-diffusion and layered-weight method

Aiming at the problem of safety evaluation for the embankment in lower reaches of Yellow River, at first, the paper constructs multi-level and semi-structured the evaluation index system based on consequence-reverse-diffusion method, and then confirms weight to the multi-objective and multi-level system based on layered-weight method. In the fires layer (input layer), the index weight is confirmed through calculation entropy-weight-vector, in the second layer (criterion layer), the sub-system weight is confirmed through entropy-weight-vector, equal-weight and experience weight, three methods. At last, the fuzzy evaluation model is used to calculate and compare results. Taking six typical sections of embankment in lower reaches of the Yellow River as a case study, in the second layer calculated, the paper adopts three kinds of weight to calculate, the first weight is entropy-weight-vector (0.394, 0.394), the second is equal-weight (0.500, 0.500), the third is the subjective weight (0.600, 0.600). According to the results, the comprehensive evaluation value has conformity trend. Engineering factors subsystem is the optimum of No.1, No.3, No.4 embankment, non-engineering factors subsystem is the optimum of No.5, No.6 embankment, evaluation results based on entropy-weight-vector and equal-weight are the optimum of No.5 embankment, named TaoChengpu section, results based on subjective-weight is the optimum of No.3 embankment, named DongPingHu section. Consequences-reverse -diffusion method can quickly determine safety factors comprehensively, layered-weight method can effectively overcome the human influence, so that we can obtain objective and reasonable safety evaluation value, and find relatively weak levee engineering. Above research can provide data support used for Yellow River dyke safety.