山区流域洪涝预报水文与水动力耦合模型研究进展

受人类活动及气候变化的影响，我国山区流域洪涝灾害频发，研制洪涝模拟及预报模型对于流域洪涝灾害防治及水环境综合整治具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。论文评述了洪涝模拟与预报使用的水文及水动力模型的优缺点，指出单一的水文或水动力模型的局限性。基于此，分析并比较了国内外已有的水文模型与水动力模型的不同耦合方式，包括水文模型与水动力模型的串联耦合、水文模型与一维水动力模型的动态单向耦合、水文模型与二维水动力模型的动态单向耦合。总结了各类耦合模型的优势和适用性，评价了已有耦合模型在计算精度、数值格式稳定性和计算效率等方面所取得的创新。论文探讨了流域洪涝发生和发展的水文过程与水动力过程的互馈机制，分析了水文模型与水动力模型新的耦合方法及可行性，介绍了水文与二维及一维水动力的动态双向耦合模型。动态双向耦合模型预期能更加真实地反映流域洪涝发生及发展物理机制，具有提高洪涝模拟预报精度和计算效率的潜力。各类耦合模型各有其自身优势，可以根据流域及城市防洪实际，选取合适的水文与水动力耦合模型，为山区流域洪涝模拟和预报提供技术支持。

Review on hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling models for flood forecasting in mountains watershed

Flood disasters occur frequently in mountainous watershed due to human activities and climate change, and the development of flood prediction model has important theoretical significance and application value for flood disaster management and water environment improvement. The advantages and disadvantages of hydrological and hydrodynamic models for flood simulation and forecast were detailed in this paper,respectively,and the shortcomings of single hydrological model or hydrodynamic model for flood simulation and forecasting were proposed. Based on this, the characteristics and applicability of different coupling models,such as series coupling of hydrological and hydrodynamic models,dynamic unidirectional coupling of hydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models,and dynamic unidirectional coupling of hydrological and 2D hydrodynamic models, were summarized and compared, and it was concluded that these coupling models have made great progress in computational accuracy,computational efficiency and numerical scheme stability. The mutual feedback mechanism between hydrological process and hydrodynamic process were introduced, and the feasibility of a new coupling model was also discussed. As a result, a dynamic bilateral coupling model (DBCM) was established, which was expected to reflect the real flood routing process and improve the simulation accuracy. In the future,not only the simulation accuracy of flood disaster should be improved, but also the operation efficiency of models should be increased to achieve high-precision flood simulation, which support for flood control and comprehensive improvement of water environment. In practice, according to the actual flood control situation of mountainous watershed and cities, the different coupling model can be selected for flood simulation and forecast.