辽宁省气候舒适度变化及未来趋势预测

气候舒适度是人居环境建设的重要依据,研究其历史演变规律及未来变化趋势对人与环境协调发展至关重要。基于辽宁省23个典型气象站点1967—2018年逐日气象资料,利用线性倾向及通径分析等方法分析各等级舒适日数的时空分布格局及其演变特征,并探究其影响因素,在此基础上预估了未来气候变化对气候舒适度的影响程度。结果表明:(1)辽宁省全年舒适和热不舒适日数分别以3.22 d/10 a和0.32 d/10 a的速率上升,冷不舒适日数以-3.54 d/10 a的速率下降;(2)各等级舒适日数分布及变化趋势都具有空间异质性,沈阳市人口对气候舒适响应最强,朝阳市最弱;(3)舒适和冷不舒适日数变化的主要影响因素是气温和风速,湿度只有在温度高时对热不舒适日数影响明显;(4)在未来气候变化情景下辽宁省气候舒适日数表现为先增加达到最舒适环境,而后随着气温的升高而减少。

Climate comfort change and future trend forecast in Liaoning Province

Climate comfort is an important basis for the construction of human settlements． Ｒesearch on its historical evolution and future trends is crucial to the coordinated development of humans and the environment． Based on daily meteorological data from 23 typical meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1967 to 2018，the spatial and temporal distribution patterns and evolution characteristics of comfortable days of various grades are analyzed by using linear trend and path analysis methods，and the influencing factors are explored． Estimated the impact of future climate change on climate comfort． The results show that: ( 1) The number of comfortable and thermal uncomfortable days in Liaoning Province increases at a rate of 3. 22 d/10 a and 0. 32 d/10 a，and the number of cold and uncomfortable days decreases at a rate of －3. 54 d/10 a; ( 2) Both the distribution of comfort days and the trend of change of each level are spatially heterogeneous． The population of Shenyang has the strongest response to climate comfort and the weakest in Chaoyang． ( 3) The main influencing factors for the change of comfort and cold and uncomfortable days are temperature and wind speed． When the temperature is high，the effect on the number of thermal discomfort days is obvious． ( 4) Under the future climate change scenario，the climate comfort day in Liaoning Province will increase first to reach the most comfortable environment，and then decrease with the increase of temperature．