安徽省空调负荷横向对比差异分析与中长期预测

针对安徽空调负荷比重和人均空调负荷两项空调负荷指标水平是否符合安徽自身发展特征及其中长期发展趋势问题,文章选取华东和中部其他省份作为参考,分别建立了安徽空调负荷比重和人均空调负荷差异分析模型以及空调负荷预测模型,结果表明,安徽空调负荷比重与自身负荷特性和用电结构特征总体匹配,人均空调负荷与自身人均居民指标水平和城镇化进程特点总体匹配,安徽空调负荷指标与中部省份更为相近,安徽2025年人均空调负荷达到江苏、浙江当前水平,2030年达到上海当前水平,中长期空调负荷比重仍有上升空间,但难超55%。

Crosswise Contrastive Difference Analysis and Medium-to-Long Term Forecasting on Air-Conditioning Load in Anhui Province

With the aim to learn about whether such two air-conditioning load indicators as air-conditioning load proportion and per capita air-conditioning load accord with the development characteristics of Anhui Province and its medium-to-long term development,this paper respectively establishes difference analysis models of air-conditioning load proportion and per capita air-conditioning load as well as a forecasting model,seeking reference from other provinces in East and Central China.According to the results,Anhui Province′s air-conditioning load proportion accords on the whole with its load characteristics and power consumption structure,while its per capita air-conditioning load generally accords with its per capita residential levels and urbanization.While closer to central provinces in terms of air-conditioning load indicators,Anhui′s per capita air-conditioning load is expected to achieve the current level of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province in 2025 and that of Shanghai in 2030.Despite room for increase,its medium-to-long term air-conditioning load proportion can hardly exceed 55%.