一种基于半马尔柯夫过程的配电系统可靠性经济评估方法

针对配电系统故障时间分布不确定的特点,提出了基于半马尔柯夫过程的可靠性经济评估通用方法。建立元件寿命、预防维修时间和修理时间服从任意分布的可靠性评估模型,引入用户停电损失函数研究系统在不完善预防维修情况下的停电损失;通过实例证明了该方法的正确性,显示出该方法对Homogenous M arkov和W e ibu llM arkov算法的兼容性、有效性,同时更清晰地反映了元件故障持续时间分布对系统可靠性经济指标的影响。

A method of reliability cost assessment in distribution system based on Semi-Markov process

This paper presents a general method of reliability cost assessment in distribution system which based on Semi-Markov process and aimed at the uncertainty of failure duration distribution.It gives a reliability assessment model for element longevity,preventive maintenance and repair time submitting to a random distribution,introduces customer interruption damage function and gives a calculation method of interruption cost in imperfect maintenance.Finally,it offers a simple system to testify its correctness and validity,reveals that it is compatible with the Homogenous Markov and Weibull Markov model,and could subtly reflect the effect of repair time on reliability cost indices.