施工项目成本的灰色预测

灰色预测是根据过去的及现在已知的或非确定的信息建立的一个从过去引申到未来的灰色模型，从而确定系统未来发展变化的趋势，并为规划、决策提供依据．运用灰色预测理论，结合施工项目成本的历史发展趋势，建立了施工项目成本的GM(1，1)预测模型，为了进一步提高预测精度，建立了单段函数残差辩识模型．并通过工程实例，阐述了施工项目成本预测的操作程序．

The gray prediction of construction project cost

Gray prediction is a gray model based on the previous or present, known or indefinite information so that the changing trend of the system can be determined and theoretical basis be provided for planning and decision.On the basis of the combination of gray prediction and the developing trend of construction cost,the prediction model of construction cost and deficient tolerance model to improve the accuracy of prediction are established ,and the process of construction cost prediction by using engineering example is elaborated.