基于ALOHA 的输气管道泄漏危害范围研究

为提高输气管道泄漏危害范围的预测精度，以便在管体泄漏发生时快速合理的设置警戒区域。通过控制变量法，利用ALOHA软件对输气管道泄漏事故进行动态模拟和后果趋势分析，并结合多元线性回归拟合影响因素与伤害距离的关系。结果表明，管道长度、管道压力的增大会使管道泄漏导致的危害范围增大，随着泄露孔径的增大，危害范围呈现先增大后减小的趋势，风速增大、地面粗糙度的增加，有利于减小泄漏导致的危害范围；多元线性回归的拟合精度较高，平均相对误差为2.15%；单因素分析表明，泄漏孔径、管道长度、管道压力、风速对泄漏导致的危害范围影响显著，而地面粗糙度对危害范围的影响不显著；通过在最不利条件下进行实地模拟，发现室内外的甲烷扩散体积分数超过了AEGL-1的极限值，说明居民区与管道的安全距离不够，应扩大安全距离或采取其他必要的防护措施。研究结果可为输气管道泄漏事故的有效预防和应急处理提供实际参考。

Study on the Damage Range of Gas Pipeline Leakage Based on ALOHA

In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the damage range of gas pipeline leakage, the warning area can be set up quickly and reasonably when the leakage occurs. Through the control variable method, ALOHA software was used to carry out dynamic monitoring and consequence trend analysis of gas pipeline leakage accidents, and combined with multiple linear regression to fit the relationship between influencing factors and injury distance. The results show that the increase of pipe length and pipe pressure will increase the damage range of leakage. With the increase of leakage aperture, the damage range increases first and then decreases. The increase of wind speed and ground roughness is beneficial to reduce the leakage damage range. The fitting accuracy of multiple linear regression is high, and the average relative error is 2.15%. The single factor leakage aperture, pipeline length, pipeline pressure and wind speed have significant effects on the damage range, while the ground roughness has no significant effect on the damage range. Outdoor and indoor methane diffusion volume fractions were obtained by field simulations under the most adverse conditions. The research results can provide practical reference for effective prevention and emergency treatment of gas pipeline leakage accidents.